Introduction and Case StudiesThe purpose of this article is to attempt to define the characteristics of modern day 4GW (4th Generation Warfare) as they apply to the intersection of ethnic conflict and failed states, and then extrapolate from that to paint a hypothetical picture of what such a scenario could look like in Europe.
As historically-aware and conscious individuals who follow the news out of Europe closely, we are all well aware that the continent is sliding precariously into all-out destabilization and war, as a result of mass immigration and other destructive policies inflicted upon it by its leaders.
While each of us has most likely seen a few such similar hypothetical scenarios relating to Europe’s immediate future posted online, they are likely to read more like Hollywood thrillers, or World War Three pulp fiction, then rational and scholarly examinations. This article will therefore endeavor to hypothesize such a scenario in a much more sober, analytical manner.
To do this however we must first determine what the qualities most often found in such conflicts are, and for that purpose we need case studies of similar phenomena from recent history.
To that end the following conflicts are relevant: 1) the Lebanese civil war of the 1980s and the related destabilization that affected Lebanon both before and after it, 2) the Balkans conflicts of the 1990s following the breakup of Yugoslavia, 3) the Soviet-Afghan war of the 1980s and subsequent Afghan Civil War of the 1990s, 4) the First and Second Chechen Wars of the 1990s, along with the continued ethnic conflict in that region that has followed in their wake, and finally 5) the drug-war induced 4GW destabilization in Mexico that has afflicted the country over the last two decades.
These conflicts have various similarities and differences to contemporary Europe. With the exception of Mexico they all involve ethnic conflict, which is something they share with the situation in Europe. Mexico, on the other hand, is the only arguably “First World” nation noted, which is what warrants its inclusion on the list. Afghanistan is a nation that has no real tradition of the rule of law, which certainly makes it different than Europe, but it also represents a conflict that was heavily entangled with global geopolitics, just as the situation in Europe is. The Balkan conflict is the closest to the situation in Europe geographically, culturally, and in terms of its belligerents (white Europeans and Muslims), and is therefore particularly valuable as a comparison point.
The common traits of such conflicts are:
- Ethnic Division — The conflict in the Balkans was almost entirely defined by ethnic conflict, as Serbs, Bosniaks, Croats, and other groups warred with each other. Likewise in Afghanistan, the breakdown of the state saw nearly every ethnic class (Tajiks, Hazaras, Pashtuns) detach into separate groups with separate power structures and commanders.
- Ethnically or religiously-based attacks upon civilians — This was a primary symptom of the ethnic division in these conflicts. Examples range from widespread ethnically-motivated rape in the Balkans and Chechnya to the large scale killing of civilians in several of the conflicts. An example of this was the Karantina Massacre during the Lebanese Civil War, in which Maronite forces in Lebanon killed between 1000-1500 Muslim civilians, followed two days later by a similar revenge attack by the Palestinians upon Maronite civilians in Damour.
- Breakdown of police and government control — Ubiquitous in nearly all of these conflicts.
- The presence or growth of militias representing various non-governmental entities — Examples being Hezbollah and the Phalangists in Lebanon, as well as numerous militias in the Balkans.
- Government suppression of free speech and political parties — Ubiquitous in nearly all the conflicts mentioned.
- The quick breakdown of “Cosmetic Armies” with no history of real world combat or application — A prime example is again the Lebanese Civil War.
- Proxy support of 4GW forces by other governments — The Israeli and Iranian support of the Maronites and the Shiite Muslims, respectively, in Lebanon. As well as the support of the Afghan Mujahedeen by the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia during the Soviet-Afghan War.
- The use of crime to fund 4GW forces — Mexico is a prime example, as well as poppy cultivation by Islamist forces and the Taliban in Afghanistan, and economically motivated kidnapping in several of the conflicts.
- Barriers placed upon freedom of movement — Lebanon and the Balkans are prime examples.
- Refugee situations — Lebanon and Afghanistan are prime examples.
Extrapolation to Modern EuropeOur hypothetical case study of how events could similarly play out in Europe will be centered politically in Sweden, and geographically in the area around the Swedish-Danish border where the Baltic meets the North Sea.
We base this statement about Sweden upon The Fund for Peace’s official “Failed State” definition, which is based upon four characteristics. These characteristics and their relation to Sweden are produced below.
1. “Loss of control of its territory, or of the monopoly on the legitimate use of physical force” —
This is demonstrated by the Swedish government’s inability to police hostile immigrant-majority areas, as detailed by Swedish Police Captain Lars Alvarsjö, who recently told Dagbladet that the Swedish legal system “is at the point of collapse.”1 He further stated: “Lawlessness ensues [and] criminal gangs have taken over and determine the rules of the game.” Alvarsjö went on to document the fact that police are regularly attacked with Molotov cocktails, hand grenades, and gunfire.
2. “Erosion of legitimate authority to make collective decisions” —
This is not yet here, but the escalating restrictions on free speech and the government’s statements suggesting a willingness to ban or restrict the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats party suggests it is not far off. Furthermore there are the widespread police cover-ups of immigrant-perpetrated rape, which has lent the government and the media a rapidly increasing level of mistrust among the native populace. There is also the wholesale rejection of government authority by an entire minority ethnic group, whose numbers are increasing dramatically year to year.
3. “Inability to provide public services” —
This follows from characteristic number one. When EMT’s refuse to enter some areas of the country, and only enter other areas with bulletproof vests and police protection, that must certainly be deemed an “Inability to provide public services.” There are also increasing housing shortages precipitated by the massive numbers of “refugees” and migrants.
4. “Inability to interact with other states as a full member of the international community” —
This is a tricky one, as Sweden has for so long been one of the elite nations in the so-called “international community.” However, when looked at objectively their high standing seems illegitimate. Sweden is now home to the second highest per capita rape rate of any nation on earth, after Lesotho, in Southern Africa. This can also fairly be characterized as a massive campaign of ethnically-driven mass rape. If the events going on in Sweden and the statistics reflecting them were switched with some random third world country, it is obvious that the international community would be highly critical of its human rights record, and it would most likely be treated as a pariah to some degree on the world stage.
Hypothetical Scenario Involving the Outbreak of Violence In EuropeDate: Summer 20xx (this could be 2016, 2019, 2024, etc. . . .)
- Increased friction between the Swedish state and immigrants has enflamed tensions throughout the country. Malmö begins seeing increasing immigrant on native violence of a level previously unknown. Further, the violence has become a cultural phenomenon or purposeful “Intifada” similar to the “Days of Rage” in Palestine. Swedish women are raped openly in the streets. Swedish men are attacked regularly. The police force in Malmö is on the brink of collapsing. Their operations are increasingly militarized as any form of regular policing is impossible. The immigrant communities have progressed completely out of government control, short of tactical incursions by government forces necessitating large numbers of police and riot troops with military vehicles.
- White flight out of Malmö and the surrounding areas has left the city devoid of the personnel needed for it to function. There are massive shortages of teachers, medical personnel, firefighters, and EMT’s. Government services increasingly exist in name only. Police officers must be bussed in from neighboring areas. The justice system is collapsing and the judicial system has fully collapsed. The first hints of 4GW crime begin appearing, such as kidnappings and tolls to travel through certain areas.
- Native Swedish vigilante violence begins as chaos escalates. There are multiple shootings of Muslim men. Some involve self-defense, others offer unclear motives and appear to be politically or “racially” motivated. Middle-Eastern restaurants are burned to the ground. Refugee centers are burned and shot up.
- The increasingly isolated Swedish government, massively threatened by the destabilization of society, begins violently clamping down on free speech. Political “hate speech” on the internet is prosecuted vigorously. Right-wing anti-immigrant groups are attacked and shut down.
- With Malmö in state of insurrection and chaos, and calls for violence from Muslims across Europe, Denmark completely seals off the Øresund Bridge and fully militarizes their border with Sweden. They further clamp down on civil liberties of Muslims in Denmark, afraid the crisis will spread.
- The Swedish government outlaws the Sweden Democrats, who, despite widespread support among ethnic Swedes, still have not taken power because of the ever-increasing number of foreign born immigrants being hastily granted citizenship and voting rights. Sweden Democrat supporters march in the streets and there are acts of violence and vandalism against representations of the government and against the immigrant community.
- Ethnic violence escalates in Stockholm and Gothenburg. There are riots in heavily immigrant areas. Massive nightly car burnings occur, along with a number of homicides. The government attempts Martial Law as the two cities becomes increasingly Balkanized.
- In addition to the vanguard of small-scale native Swedish vigilante groups that have sprung up, larger and slightly more mainstream self-defense militias begin expanding and arming themselves, despite government attempts to violently crack down on them. These are made up of men with relevant experience in law enforcement, the military, hunting, etc., and represent a “normalization” of vigilantism.
- Government legitimacy disappears as coalition government starts to crumble. Events from Sweden begin to appear as front-page news on a daily basis throughout Europe.
- As violence between Swedish militias and immigrant gangs escalates, first trickles of external funding begin to appear for Preservationist groups/militias (most likely from either Denmark, Poland, Russia, Finland, or any combination of the above). Funding likewise grows for increasingly organized Islamist/immigrant groups. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations responsible.
- Despite likely Danish funding of preservationist elements within Sweden, Denmark also continues attempting to prop up mainstream Swedish government, afraid of mass spillover should government fall and anarchy increase.
- As Malmö becomes 100% Muslim-controlled due to massive white flight and the inability of security system to maintain order, and as violence grows throughout country, the national government topples.
- Killings are occurring every day; Preservationist militias are patrolling streets; Muslim gangs make incursions into native areas and carry out killings; suicide bombings begin to occur.
- The vastly overstretched Swedish police force and the “cosmetic” Swedish military collapse.
- Preservationist militia begin taking over Swedish Army depots and bases and arming themselves.
- Immigrant gangs and Islamists begin doing same in Malmö and other heavily Muslim areas.
- The EU, hamstrung by political impotence and infighting and having massive problems of its own, is largely powerless to act.
- Full-scale 4GW fighting expands between Preservationist militias and Muslim gangs/organizations. Fighting is fiercest in medium-sized towns in southern half of country, because these areas are not homogeneous like in the ghettoized suburbs. Thousands are killed as each side struggles to maintain control over neighborhoods and areas. As in Afghanistan and Lebanon, territory is fluid and some areas change sides on an almost constant basis as the fighting escalates.
- Widespread atrocities are committed by both sides, just as they are in almost all conflicts. Hundreds of Muslims at a time are slaughtered by Swedes and buried in mass graves, just like in the Balkans. Swedish men, women, and children are murdered and often beheaded. Other Swedes are found dismembered and tortured to death. Young Swedish girls are abducted and kept as sex slaves by local commanders, just as Russian girls in Chechnya were in the 1990s. First real military weaponry begins to be used, including mortars, missile launchers, etc.
- Native Swedish refugees attempt to flee country in large numbers; Norwegian and Finnish governments allow them in. Muslim refugees are prohibited, and large numbers of Muslims eke out existence in now war-torn suburbs, often without heat or utilities.
- Eventually troops from neighboring European countries join fighting on behalf of Preservationist militias. The original Swedish government has ceased to exist. Numerous left-wing politicians have been executed as traitors. Heavy fighting continues. Muslims in the far south are pushed back into Malmö and contained. Fighting continues in other areas of the country.
ConclusionIt is difficult to extrapolate beyond this point because events would begin to be increasingly affected by other geopolitical forces, just as they were in the Balkans in the late 1990s. Depending on what is going on in the rest of Europe, what kind of administration is in power in the US, and a host of other factors, the situation could play out in a multitude of ways.
An understanding of 4th Generation Warfare suggests that the conflict would not erupt into a broader war between nation-states. By this argument the era of 2GW and 3GW wars between nation-states is over, and countries across the globe will increasingly be focused upon and united against 4GW elements within their respective societies, rather than in conflict with each other, as was the case in the 20th century. To extrapolate from this, it is highly unlikely that civil war in Europe would lead any nation-states (Russia for instance) to begin fighting any other nation states (despite what our Western mainstream media may suggest regarding Putin and the existential threat he poses.)
It is likely that with the huge numbers of Muslims now in Scandinavia, and in Europe as a whole, the occurrence of war would serve as a catalyst for both the massive movement of refugees (consider the sick irony), as well as a hardening of ethnic zones and ethnic Balkanization. A city such as Malmö that has or ends up having an almost 100% Muslim population, could, in the event of war, very likely end up like Gaza — a securitized ethnic city-state surrounded by armed adversaries, existing in a state of almost perpetual rebellion and hostility. We would see, as has been predicted, the “Lebanonization” of Europe, filled with failed states and ethnic satellites.
One additional characteristic of failed states not noted above, however, is the fact that they often serve as “incubators” of culture and revolution. This was most notably true in the case of Afghanistan in the 1980s and the culture of jihadist-Islamism that grew forth from it. As we remember, until the 1980s, “jihadism” was for the most part merely an inchoate philosophy. Whereas today we think of it as a coordinated, worldwide phenomenon represented by large organized groups such as ISIS and al-Qaeda, it was, until several decades ago, mainly a philosophical phenomenon, laid out by writers such as Sayyid Qutb, debated by a tenuous group of believers from far corners of the Muslim world.
It was the cauldron of Afghanistan, a failed state where such concepts could be experimented with and acted upon, where this constellation of ideas first achieved concrete form. Individuals such as Abdullah Azzam, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, and Osama bin Laden all travelled to Afghanistan independently to help fight against the Russians. Once there however, they met each other, formed common bonds, and transmuted Islamic jihadism from abstraction into solid form, thus shaping what would eventually become the most successful revolutionary movement of the last 100 years.
While groups such as al-Qaeda and ISIS and their brethren in Europe are our foremost existential enemies, it is still important to take note of this phenomenon. For the devolvement of Sweden into a failed state means it could serve the same likely purpose for our own worldviews. As the conflict escalates, it is likely to attract passionate individuals from across the Occidental world, all sharing a drive to save Sweden, save Europe, and preserve our culture, heritage, and lands. Where the current climate in Europe is antithetical to these goals, and the tribal and traditionalist precepts that go along with them, a future failed Swedish state might on the other hand offer the ideal starting point from which these ideas can take root and grow, and ensure the future for which our people will most likely soon be fighting.
Notes:1. “Rättssystemet hotas av kollaps”. Svd.se. Dagbladet. 12 Jan. 2016. Web. 08 Mar. 2016. http://www.svd.se/polis-rattssystemet-hotas-av-kollaps
2. Iaccino, Ludovica. “Top Five Countries With Highest Rates Of Rape”. Ibtimes.co.uk. International Business Times, 29 Jan. 2014. Web. 08 Mar. 2016. http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/top-5-countries-highest-rates-rape-1434355